UTVols News and Opinions

Vol fans, rejoice! No matter what happens Saturday night in Columbia, Tennessee will be a winner. Don’t ever forget that—cue the Vader music—our exalted opponent is a Tennessean. He might not promote himself as one, but the simple fact is that Steve Spurrier was raised in East Tennessee and was a high school phenom at Science Hill Academy in Johnson City. He even sounds like a Tennessean when he talks—just listen to that twang. So, either way, Tennessee wins Saturday.

You may think that sounds like I’m predicting a Gamecock victory. Well, there may be some evidence for that. The line in Vegas opened up this week at Tennessee -5 (Vols favored by 5 points) but very quickly was whittle down to -3. That means that the early money—nicknamed the ‘smart’ money because those are the bettors that aren’t waiting to ride a favorite but making their own analyses—thinks the Gamecocks will keep it closer than 5 points, and maybe even—gasp!—win the game. These are people who either bet for a living or do it every week. Think they might know what they’re talking about?

If you’re still unconvinced, then let’s tally up some quick points:

1. Jayson Swain likely out for SC game: with half of the nation’s top receiving duo sidelined by injury, the Gamecock secondary is sure to double up on Meachem and force Ainge to look for Bret Smith and then Josh Briscoe or Lucas Taylor in the slot. Ainge had better be hot Saturday, and the receivers cannot afford any drops. Witht his stingy South carolina secondary, UT has little room for error and has to take advantage of every opportunity.
2. Focus: SC offensive line struggles; Syvelle Newton makes things happen: some might think it a good thing that the SC offensive line has had protection problems this year. That would be great if you didn’t have a junior Michael Vick under center, that can make big plays with his feet as well as his arm. Newton is the real deal and will be extremely hard for UT to contain. Spurrier will throw some wrinkles at John Chavis—look for a flea flicker, or a reverse to set up a pass to Syvelle Newton who, let’s not forget, spent a year at wide receiver before taking up the reins as quarterback again this year.
3. Is there a kick returner in the house? Jonathan Hefney has done a superb job over the past couple of games returning punts for UT. LaMArcus Coker was lighting things up for UT a bit on the kick returns as well, but with him out someone else—maybe Austin Rogers?—needs to step up and put some fire back into the special teams and help out UT with some short field situations.
4. UT run game MIA with Coker out: Arian Foster will return as UT’s starting TB backed up by Montario Hardesty. Foster certainly has the power to go between the tackles on an average SC run defense, but absolutely must stay focused on not giving up a fumble in this emotional game.

Now, with all that being said, let's take a look at some other key facts:

1. The secondary may be a stiff challenge, but SC has proven susceptible to the run--especially up the middle. This is one of the keys to the game for UT: if Foster gets going early, then not only can we keep that vaunted Spurrier offense off the field, but maybe open up some lanes inside for Ainge to hit Meachem, Smith, or Lucas Taylor for some big gains.
2. The Gamecocks have not yet beaten a quality opponent. Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky all three are below .500 for inning percentage this year, and they got shut out by a Georgia team that has since fallen off the map. Their one quality game so far is the Auburn game in which they appeared to hang with the Tigers until finally losing by only one touchdown, but the total body of work so far does not support them being a top SEC team.
3. They won handily at Vanderbilt, but they committed 8 penalties in the game and turned over the ball 4 times. If we can get that same effort from them Saturday, I'm confident the Vols will handle this SC team.
4. The Tennessee defense finally showed what they are fully capaple of last week against Alabama. Jerod Mayo was the SEC defensive player of the week, and Xavier Mitchell has proven he can apply some pressure this season as well. I think the Vols should be able to contain Syvelle newton despite the Ol' Ballcoach's trickery, and the SC offense will sputter.

I'm looking for Arian Foster to run for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Erik Ainge will add to the score by throwing for 200 yards and 2 TDs, and Wilhoit will contribute two field goals as well.

Final Prediction: Tennessee 34 South Carolina 15