UTVols News and Opinions

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First things first. I have a little crow to eat. I’m extremely happy to be wrong in my first prediction—i.e., the shakedown of Tennessee’s season that I kicked off with four weeks ago. Like nearly everyone else, I was completely surprised when UT exploded on the football scene with a huge win over Cal. More importantly, they showed discipline and resilience. They look like a completely new team.

I’m not asking for a mulligan; I’m simply acknowledging, with a huge grin on my face, that I was wrong about this team. No matter what happens from here on out, they have completely changed my mind about the direction they’re heading—and how fast they’re getting there. Ainge is a different quarterback, and Tennessee is a different team from last year’s dysfunctional group.

(By the way, did you notice how brilliantly I set myself up for ‘failure’? Yeah, I’m wrong—and things couldn’t be better. My team is good, maybe great, so I don’t feel the least bit sorry for myself. I’m not alone, either; a lot of highly-thought-of analysts have egg on their face already regarding this team.) Now, to turn our attention to this week’s issues—

It’s Phil Fulmer vs. Urban Meyers. It’s ol’ Rocky Top vs. Urban Sprawl. Going back, it’s Fulmer vs. Spurrier. Manning vs. Spurrier. Controversial calls. The struggle for SEC East dominance. Off the field caustic comments, trash talk flying, fans enraged. Neyland Stadium becomes a pressure cooker. You can talk all day about the Iron Bowl, and old rivalries. No one outside the state of Alabama cares anymore. This relatively new rivalry is what the SEC is all about. This has SEC and potentially national implications.

With two games each under their belts, both beasts from the east now know only slightly more about each other than at the beginning of the season.

Tennessee fans are obviously buoyed up by the unexpectedly strong statement made by an underestimated Tennessee team against California, but tempered with a sense of vulnerability after an escape against a very talented Air Force team and the loss of two valuable starters for the season in right tackle Justin Harrell, and cornerback Inquoris Johnson. Florida, on the other hand, is still very healthy with all starters ready to go and two easy wins over Southern Mississippi and Central Florida.

Unbelievably, despite rupturing a tendon in his left bicep, Harrell is still going to play Saturday against the Gators. I don’t think this team needed any ‘firing up’ for this game, but the leadership he’s showing just by taking the field with that injury is huge. Are these Vols tough? You bet they are. There’s not a single young player on that team that would dare to wimp out now, with that example being held up for them. Even more important than whatever contribution he can personally make Saturday, is the psychological effect his announcement has to have on this team.

Onlookers are excited to see how both teams will respond to stiffer competition in their first true test of the season. One thing is for certain: this Saturday in Knoxville will feature two of the best teams in the SEC this year, and set one of them up extremely well for a strong run at the SEC East title.

Key Matchups

Deshawn Wynn vs. UT Linebackers

Tennessee’s linebacking corps proved up to the challenge in the first week against a quality opponent in California. Marshawn Lynch was contained and held to less than 100 yards rushing. Logically, if UT can keep a Heisman candidate in check, they should be able to do that with just about anybody. According to the Gainesville Sun, Wynn’s playing with a little bit of pain right now after a shoulder injury before the first game and a neck stinger against Southern Mississippi.

However, a big part of that battle is won up front on the defensive line. That played a huge part in this win, and from all analyst accounts Florida’s offensive line is suspect. More on that in a moment…

Edge: Tennessee

Hardesty & Co. vs. Florida Linebackers

This is a tough one to call. UT’s running backs have certainly showed us something in non-conference contests, but all the buzz this year is about Florida’s defense. The focus seems to be on the defensive front seven, so the question mark shows back up for UT’s rushing attack in this game. Here’s the key: Ainge has to connect early, a couple of times, downfield to make that linebacker show a slight hesitation and jump the wrong way on play action. Seconds count, and that slight hesitation may be enough to open a hole or two in that stellar Gator wall.

The team that outrushes the other in this contest has won 14 of the last 16. Don’t be fooled by Coach Meyer’s comments to the contrary; this will be an emphasis from both sidelines. Coach Fulmer knows all too well what a solid rushing attack can do to open up the field for big plays through the air. Look for this to be a hotly contested battle on Saturday.

Edge: Even

Florida offensive line vs. UT defensive line

I’ve already alluded to the key story here: the fact that Justin Harrell is there, even if he’s not 100%, is just a complete physical and psychological blow to the Gators. It had to have thrown a wrench in Meyers’ game plans when the news came out yesterday about Harrell’s return. Similarly, this has to have the younger UT defensive players completely jacked up to a whole new level of intensity.

Questions exist about Florida’s young offensive line. They’ve shown themselves plenty capable so far against inferior opponents, allowing only two sacks so far. However, they’re a young squad in terms of real playing experience. With Ronnie Wilson—the unit’s lone returning starter—out with a broken ankle, Drew Miller has done a good job so far of plugging the gap. Coach Meyer has expressed encouragement regarding the play of junior Carlton Medder so far in leading the young O-line. The result: we still won’t know how good this group is until after Saturday night.

Edge: Tennessee

UT offensive line vs. Florida defensive line

Arron Sears and David Ligon anchor a young but solid offensive unit that hasn’t allowed a sack in Tennessee’s first two contests. However, it’s fair to say they also haven’t faced an SEC defense yet. Florida’s much touted defensive front seven have already advertised their intent to pressure Ainge into making mistakes. This will be a tremendous test for this young O-line, and possibly the best one they’ll see all season. It’s crucial for this group of young men to elevate their play to another level and keep giving Ainge the time he needs to connect with our much improved receiving corps.


Edge: Florida

Florida passing game vs. UT defense

Chris Leak obviously has the arm to take it deep, and the accuracy to hurt you in the short game. He has two veteran, talented targets in Andre Caldwell and Ray MacDonald. With the early season losses of both Roshaun Fellows and Inquoris Johnson, UT’s defensive coaches are counting on someone to step up. They have a tremendous athlete in Demetrice Morley, who reportedly will see time at safety allowing Jonathan Hefney to fill in at cornerback. This is another matchup that is too close to call on paper.

Edge: Even

Tennessee passing game vs. Florida defense

Erik Ainge and his offensive squad take their nearly flawless record into a much anticipated matchup with arguably the conference’s and maybe the nation’s best defense. If the offensive line for Tennessee can prove it’s as good as they’ve looked so far against the Gators this Saturday, the big, strong UT receivers have the talent, desire, and proven ability to make big plays. I believe Coach Fulmer will be looking to Ainge to open up the field with some early completions, to allow Hardesty and Foster to rev up the rushing attack.

Edge: Tennessee

Special Teams

Austin Rogers has been solid for Tennessee so far in the return game, but has yet to break it for a big one. If he breaks one on Saturday, well, a la Coach Neyland, it could be the difference. There was one snafu in the Air Force game on the onside kick, but that’s not likely to be a huge concern going in against this team. Punter Britt Colquitt and kicker James Wilhoit are solid, and both will likely see more action in this game than in both two previous games.

On the other side, Florida is also well stocked with good special teams that have yet to be tested. Wilbur, their punter, has been selected for a post-season award watch list already.

Edge: Even

Other Factors

1. Neyland Stadium—Coach Meyer has taken this element very seriously, forcing his team to go with a silent cadence at the line of scrimmage in the Central Florida game. Tennessee fans should have no trouble getting loud for this game anyway as the bad blood between these two schools goes back for decades.
2. Weather—This is likely to be a non factor for either team. It is projected to be clear, sunny and 70 degrees at kickoff.

Edge: Tennessee


Adding It All Up—The Prediction

Maybe it’s brash optimism, or maybe I’m putting too much stock in the arm and head of Erik Ainge. Saturday may come and go and make me look like a fool, but I can’t help but like Tennessee’s chances this week against a hated rival that’s also ranked very high in the polls.

I like the leadership factor with Justin Harrell buoying up this team and getting it to a fever pitch before kickoff. I like what I’ve seen so far from this team, even with its thin depth and its weaknesses exposed against Air Force. (By the way, a little perspective on that: the Falcons led the nation last year in rushing, as they have many times before. Should we be totally surprised that they could run a few yards on anybody?)

The Gators will scuttle back to the swamp Saturday night with their first loss of the year. Tennessee will be in the driver’s seat for the SEC East, and their future will shine bright again indeed.

Tennessee 24
Florida 17