Thursday, August 17, 2006
Vols Pre-Season Ranking(s) a Mystery
It’s no secret to the vast numbers of Vol fans that the 2005 football season is one they’d like to forget. Of course, that’s easier said than done considering they were ranked as high as number 2 in the major polls early on but by the end of the season they weren’t even on the radar. The only thing that would even partially eradicate those unpleasant memories would be for the 2006 edition of the Volunteers to take themselves and their fans back to national prominence by beating a few good teams and getting a BCS bid. Sounds so simple, doesn’t it?
That brings us to an intriguing question:
Just what is a realistic expectation for U.T. in terms of pre-season national rankings for the 2006 season?
That depends on who you’re talking to. Checking several pre-season publications and polls, the Vols are most optimistically ranked by one publication at 13th, while two other major publications have them ranked at 20th and 25th, and even another doesn’t have them ranked at all. That’s a pretty wide gap in opinions and let’s face it, polls and publications ARE simply opinions. To try to get a perspective here, let’s take a look at the ’98 National Championship team and compare it to the 2005 debacle.
The Vols took the first two games in ’98 by a grand total of 4 points against Syracuse and Florida. The Syracuse game was decided by a last second field goal by Jeff Hall while the Florida win was a 3 point overtime win. Either game could have gone the other way very easily. The ’05 season started with a slim victory against a less than mediocre UAB team, then a 9 point loss to the hated gators. Take away the mental and physical mistakes in that game and it’s a toss up just like the ’98 contest between the two perennial powers. What if, just WHAT if the Vols had lost either of those games in ’98? Chances are they would have never made it to the national championship game and football history would have been written about a different national champion. And conversely, what if the Vols had erased the mistakes and beaten the gators in ’05? Other notable happenings from the ’98 season was the fact that Arkansas had the Big Orange on the ropes and would have spoiled their hopes of an undefeated season. But, a gift from the Hog’s QB in the form of a fumble with time waning, allowed Travis Henry to punch it into the end zone for the win. In 2005 when playing ‘Bama, U.T. fumbled the ball through the end zone for a touchback instead of what appeared was going to be a touchdown for the win. Any of these games mentioned could have easily gone the other way. What if, what if, what if? Other than the wins vs. losses, the two seasons had similarities. In ’05 the Vols couldn’t win the close ones whereas in ’98 they did so. Who knows what would have happened in ’98 had they lost that game to Arkansas. Chances are they’d have lost others too because they’d have shown some vulnerability to their opposition while having their own confidence shaken a little. That’s a lot of comparisons but here’s the point. A good team has to be able to win the close ones and that’s something this year’s squad has yet to prove. Okay, that was then, and this is now.
Upon observation of the intra-squad scrimmage at Neyland Stadium this past Saturday, it appears that the offensive woes for the Vols could continue and most likely will at least until yet another change is made at QB. Eric Ainge looked very confused at times, thus making the entire offense look sloppy. He had to call a time out before the FIRST play from scrimmage! His passes weren’t sharp and lacked that good, tight spiral. He also threw a critical interception where there wasn’t a friendly jersey anywhere near. This sound familiar? Jonathan Crompton on the other hand came in and appeared to spark the team. Except for the start-up jitters (fumbling the first snap from center) he looked strikingly more poised and confident than Ainge. His passes were on the money for the most part and while throwing no interceptions he threw a touchdown to Lucas Taylor. It was obvious who the team rallied around. Even Bo Hardegree came in and threw two touchdowns. Isn’t he a third-stringer? Bottom line is that it won’t be Eric Ainge at the helm when and if U.T. returns to the national prominence it has enjoyed for so long now. On the UP side of the passing game, the receivers were actually extending themselves to go after balls. This is something that has been lacking lately. With few exceptions the receivers were running good routes.
The only things that might truly bring a smile to the faces of the Vol faithful this year are the running game and the defense. If Arian Foster stays healthy he could very well have a 1000+ yard season. With others waiting to give Foster a breather like Montario Hardesty, LaMarcus Coker and David Yancy, this year’s sqad could have the best “one-two” (three-four) punch since the glory days of Reggie Cobb and Chuck Webb. But the down side to that is that once the opposition sees that you’re primarily a running team and weak on the passing end, they will stack eight or nine guys close to the line and dare you to throw while slowing down or stopping the running game. Another bright spot is the defense. They looked like the ferocious U.T. defenses we’ve become accustomed to. John Chavis has a way of producing top ten defenses year in and year out. This year will be no exception. Kudos to MISTER Chavis!
If the Big Orange loses it’s opener to the Bears of California (and that’s a real possibility) look for yet another change at QB, especially if the offense sputters and has problems scoring. If and when this happens it will cause inconsistency in the offense and there will be a great resemblance to the 2005 team. Will they have another losing season? I doubt that, but they will struggle at times and deal with some of the same offensive frustrations from a year ago. Realistically, (with a lump in my throat while writing this) the Vols DO NOT deserve to be in the top 25 in pre-season polls. Until they develop some consistency offensively, beat the teams they should, and at least split with the likes of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and LSU, they shouldn’t be ranked with the elite. Hey guys, PLEASE prove me wrong!
U.T. Pre-Season Rankings by Publication:
Harris Interactive Top 25 (25)
Athlon (20)
Lindy’s (Not in top 25)
College Football News (13)
That brings us to an intriguing question:
Just what is a realistic expectation for U.T. in terms of pre-season national rankings for the 2006 season?
That depends on who you’re talking to. Checking several pre-season publications and polls, the Vols are most optimistically ranked by one publication at 13th, while two other major publications have them ranked at 20th and 25th, and even another doesn’t have them ranked at all. That’s a pretty wide gap in opinions and let’s face it, polls and publications ARE simply opinions. To try to get a perspective here, let’s take a look at the ’98 National Championship team and compare it to the 2005 debacle.
The Vols took the first two games in ’98 by a grand total of 4 points against Syracuse and Florida. The Syracuse game was decided by a last second field goal by Jeff Hall while the Florida win was a 3 point overtime win. Either game could have gone the other way very easily. The ’05 season started with a slim victory against a less than mediocre UAB team, then a 9 point loss to the hated gators. Take away the mental and physical mistakes in that game and it’s a toss up just like the ’98 contest between the two perennial powers. What if, just WHAT if the Vols had lost either of those games in ’98? Chances are they would have never made it to the national championship game and football history would have been written about a different national champion. And conversely, what if the Vols had erased the mistakes and beaten the gators in ’05? Other notable happenings from the ’98 season was the fact that Arkansas had the Big Orange on the ropes and would have spoiled their hopes of an undefeated season. But, a gift from the Hog’s QB in the form of a fumble with time waning, allowed Travis Henry to punch it into the end zone for the win. In 2005 when playing ‘Bama, U.T. fumbled the ball through the end zone for a touchback instead of what appeared was going to be a touchdown for the win. Any of these games mentioned could have easily gone the other way. What if, what if, what if? Other than the wins vs. losses, the two seasons had similarities. In ’05 the Vols couldn’t win the close ones whereas in ’98 they did so. Who knows what would have happened in ’98 had they lost that game to Arkansas. Chances are they’d have lost others too because they’d have shown some vulnerability to their opposition while having their own confidence shaken a little. That’s a lot of comparisons but here’s the point. A good team has to be able to win the close ones and that’s something this year’s squad has yet to prove. Okay, that was then, and this is now.
Upon observation of the intra-squad scrimmage at Neyland Stadium this past Saturday, it appears that the offensive woes for the Vols could continue and most likely will at least until yet another change is made at QB. Eric Ainge looked very confused at times, thus making the entire offense look sloppy. He had to call a time out before the FIRST play from scrimmage! His passes weren’t sharp and lacked that good, tight spiral. He also threw a critical interception where there wasn’t a friendly jersey anywhere near. This sound familiar? Jonathan Crompton on the other hand came in and appeared to spark the team. Except for the start-up jitters (fumbling the first snap from center) he looked strikingly more poised and confident than Ainge. His passes were on the money for the most part and while throwing no interceptions he threw a touchdown to Lucas Taylor. It was obvious who the team rallied around. Even Bo Hardegree came in and threw two touchdowns. Isn’t he a third-stringer? Bottom line is that it won’t be Eric Ainge at the helm when and if U.T. returns to the national prominence it has enjoyed for so long now. On the UP side of the passing game, the receivers were actually extending themselves to go after balls. This is something that has been lacking lately. With few exceptions the receivers were running good routes.
The only things that might truly bring a smile to the faces of the Vol faithful this year are the running game and the defense. If Arian Foster stays healthy he could very well have a 1000+ yard season. With others waiting to give Foster a breather like Montario Hardesty, LaMarcus Coker and David Yancy, this year’s sqad could have the best “one-two” (three-four) punch since the glory days of Reggie Cobb and Chuck Webb. But the down side to that is that once the opposition sees that you’re primarily a running team and weak on the passing end, they will stack eight or nine guys close to the line and dare you to throw while slowing down or stopping the running game. Another bright spot is the defense. They looked like the ferocious U.T. defenses we’ve become accustomed to. John Chavis has a way of producing top ten defenses year in and year out. This year will be no exception. Kudos to MISTER Chavis!
If the Big Orange loses it’s opener to the Bears of California (and that’s a real possibility) look for yet another change at QB, especially if the offense sputters and has problems scoring. If and when this happens it will cause inconsistency in the offense and there will be a great resemblance to the 2005 team. Will they have another losing season? I doubt that, but they will struggle at times and deal with some of the same offensive frustrations from a year ago. Realistically, (with a lump in my throat while writing this) the Vols DO NOT deserve to be in the top 25 in pre-season polls. Until they develop some consistency offensively, beat the teams they should, and at least split with the likes of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and LSU, they shouldn’t be ranked with the elite. Hey guys, PLEASE prove me wrong!
U.T. Pre-Season Rankings by Publication:
Harris Interactive Top 25 (25)
Athlon (20)
Lindy’s (Not in top 25)
College Football News (13)
