UTVols News and Opinions

We’re officially now under two weeks away from kickoff. We’ve been through two scrimmages, and well into the third week of fall practice. Players are battling for position and playing time, and we’re starting to see the general shape of the team and its apparent weaknesses and strengths. So, while it may be still a bit premature—not all the facts are in yet—it would still be fun to run down the chart and look at how we might match up with our first opponent, California. Ultimately, we’ll see where the math takes us and come up with a prediction on the game.

Coaching

California—Jeff Tedford, 5 years. Record 33-17 (.660 winning percentage). Bowl victories: 3-0, last against Brigham Young in 2005 Las Vegas Bowl. Previous experience was at Oregon, offensive coordinator; Fresno State, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Strengths: quarterback development (examples include Trent Dilfer at Fresno State and Joey Harrington at Oregon). Offensive style—West coast style, with a bit of the spread offense thrown in.

Tennessee—Philip Fulmer, 14 years. Record 128-37 (.776 winning percentage). Led UT to 11 January bowl games, including 1999 National Championship victory in Fiesta Bowl. Last bowl January 2005, victory over Texas A&M in Cotton Bowl. Previous experience offensive coordinator, Tennessee. Strengths: recruiting, offensive line coaching. Offensive style--Power football, utilizing a strong rushing attack to open up the field for passes downfield.

Edge: Neither coach shows a clear advantage without having the benefit of seeing them go head to head. Coach Tedford of Cal shows a proven ability to take young quarterbacks and develop them quickly into college stars—and with the talent surrounding Nate Longshore, should have the offensive squad ready to light up the scoreboard. However, Coach Fulmer has proven he has the ability to take a team from nowhere all the way to the national championship. Coming off of a decidedly lackluster year in 2005, Fulmer and his staff have had a long time to think about this game and be mentally prepared. Even

Key Matchups

Marshawn Lynch vs. UT Linebackers

There’s no doubt about it—Lynch is the real deal. He’s not a Heisman candidate for no reason—he can really run. He’s a big, strong, back at 5’11”, 217 lbs., with the power to go up the middle, along with the speed to take it outside and turn the corner. Last year, the Cal rusher ran for 1,246 yds with a whopping career rushing average 7.0 yards per carry.

Sophomore QB Nate Longshore will rely on Lynch to use his skills to open up the field for the passing attack. It is critical for the UT linebacking corps to step up and contain Marshawn Lynch. Fortunately, the linebackers are one of UT’s bright spots this fall. Defensive coordinator John Chavis has an embarrassment of riches at linebacker, with Ryan Karl, Adam Meyers-White, Jerod Mayo, and freshman surprise Rico McCoy all being major contributors in scrimmages this summer.

Edge: Even

Foster, Hardesty & Co. vs. Cal Linebackers

While not yet dubbed Heisman candidates, Tennessee has a bevy of running backs that have showed flashes of brilliance throughout both spring and fall camps. Arian Foster is a shifty, nimble back that can turn the corner and take the ball upfield, while Montario Hardesty has shown some gritty toughness pounding the rock in between the tackles. California has a talented but youthful linebacking corps, and Tennessee absolutely must win this match-up and open up the field for Ainge.

Edge: Tennessee

Cal offensive line vs. UT defensive line

Cal’s offensive line was stellar last year, no doubt a major factor in Lynch’s 1,200+ yard season. They lost three starters to the NFL, but there may not be the typical drop-off at this position you might otherwise expect. Mike Tepper, at 6’6” and 336 lbs. (!!!), would have started last year had he not lost a year to injury and ended up red-shirting. Also, they have a very good, experienced center transfer from Duke who made all ACC first team last year in Tyler Krieg. Let’s run down the numbers for the line: typical O-Line size for Cal is 6’4”, 303 lbs.

As a segue, let’s compare that to the typical UT D-line size: 6’4”, 273 lbs. That’s not a bad match-up, despite the weight disparity. Defensive coordinator John Chavis has built his defensive line for speed, and that’s a pretty typical differential.

The key is whether or not the lighter UT ends and tackles have the speed and athleticism to win those match-ups and put some pressure on the pocket. If experience can make a difference, then seniors Turk McBride and Justin Harrell lead a talented young squad. Coaches have had very good things to say about both tackles, and they have been mainstays in camp from the spring through the latest scrimmage on Saturday. Big things are expected of sophomore sensation Demonte Bolden as well, at 6’6”, 290 lbs. He may be a lock for a starting job next year with McBride graduating, but look for some nice contributions inside from him this year.

Edge: Even

UT offensive line vs. Cal defensive line

Going into this spring, UT had a lot of questions to answer on the offensive line. Last year’s squad left a lot to be desired from the pass protection standpoint in particular. With the changeover in coaching personnel in the off-season, Fulmer hopes to upgrade his offensive line play to a true SEC level. Taking a look at the numbers, the typical Tennessee lineman stands at 6’4”, 303 lbs—almost exactly the same as Cal. More importantly, they outweigh Cal’s defensive line by about the same amount as the Cal O-line vs. UT’s D-line (273 lbs.)

Incoming coach Greg Adkins has a lot to prove with this year’s edition. The first scrimmage this year did not show the kind of improvement necessary to beat a serious contender like Cal. The second scrimmage still broke down a bit in pass protection, yet mounted several successful, hard-fought drives against a live defense. Seniors Arron Sears and David Ligon anchor a squad with some imposing youthful talent, including a center prospect rated number one nationally in Josh McNeil. McNeil is making a strong bid this fall for the starter’s job, taking more snaps than former walk-on Michael Frogg in Saturday’s scrimmage.

This is the key to the game, and UT’s season. Improvements have to come quickly and often this year in order for this team to have success. Much of the line is young, and will have to grow up quickly in the heat of battle. In order for this offense to give this team a chance to win, they need to be able to count on 4 touchdowns per game. Without the right protection, Ainge won’t be able to carry this team. Without some solid openings for Foster, Hardesty & Co., the running game won’t crack the game open. This game against Cal will show whether UT has feet of clay, or something more solid.

Edge: California

California passing game vs. UT defense

There are a couple of different things to look at here:

UT defensive line vs. Nate Longshore—can UT put some pressure on the young QB? If allowed to sit back in the pocket and find an open receiver, Longshore will throw some strikes. UT can take some of the pressure off a much-improved secondary with a good inside push from Turk McBride and Justin Harrell.
Cal receivers vs. UT secondary—Tennessee once again has an elite squad of safeties and cornerbacks. They’re not giving up anything in size or speed to their Cal opponents, and have been one of the bright spots in this fall’s camp.

Edge: Even

Tennessee passing game vs. Cal defense

Similarly, let’s flip the sides and see how it stacks up:

Cal defensive line vs. Erik Ainge—IF the Cal squad gets an inside rush on Ainge, this could crumble Tennessee’s offensive effectiveness. Coach Tedford features a strong blitzing defense, and if Ainge has the luxury of 2-3 seconds to pick up a saftey blitz he just may have the presence of mind to take advantage of the sacrificed coverage to dump off the pill to a blocking back or tight end alert to the situation. However, if Tennessee's offensive line doesn't pick up the blitz in time, this could spell disaster for a QB searching for early success to bolter his game confidence.

Tennessee receivers vs. Cal secondary—this situation changed in UT’s favor with the unfortunate incidence of a torn ACL to star cornerback Tim Mixon. Cal has plenty of other talent to plug in here, but without the benefit of Mixon’s experience (3 years). The Tennessee receivers have stepped up and shown huge improvement from a year ago, and should be able to challenge the Cal secondary.

Edge: California

Special Teams

With the injury to Mixon, California's special teams took a serious blow as well. Mixon was their top punt returner. Heisman candidate Marshawn Lynch is very capable of returning kicks for Cal, and has done so very effectively in the past. On the flip side, Jonathan Hefney has done some nice things on kick returns for UT during fall camp, and sophomore cornerback sensation Demetrice Morley made some nice punt returns and blocked two kicks during the first scrimmage.

Tennessee punter Britton Colquitt looked very solid in Saturday’s scrimmage, averaging 45 yards per kick, while kicker James Wilhoit was uncharacteristically average at 4 of 10 FGs. Coaches expect Wilhoit to be back to top form by next Tuesday’s scrimmage. 3 of his misses hit the uprights during practice.

Edge: Tennessee

Other Factors

Travel—Coaches try to downplay this as a factor on game day, but West Coast teams traveling to the East are at a decided disadvantage. Cal’s athletes are in excellent shape, but this could still take a slight toll.

Neyland Stadium—The Rock is a huge asset for Vol fans. It’s difficult to know ahead of time if sophomore QB Nate Longshore will be rattled by the inevitable crowd noise of a fan base hungry for vindication, but we will certainly know after this game.

Shields-Watkins Field—This is likely to be a non-factor. With home field advantage, you usually think of home teams altering field conditions to favor their strengths or downplay an opponent’s weaknesses. So, theoretically, they could let the grass grow longer near the sidelines to slow down Heisman candidate running back Marshawn Lynch, but in this case that might slow down UT’s backfield as well. This is a wash—no advantage for either team.

Weather—Cal is practicing in a much cooler environment than Tennessee, at 70 degrees and low humidity. If Tennessee has a typical early September, steamy 90 degree day, it could take its toll on a Cal squad unused to the harsher conditions.

Edge: Tennessee


Adding It All Up—The Prediction

We’ve waded through a lot of details; now here’s the payoff. Originally I had factored in a certain loss for UT in this opening game, but after taking an honest look and listening to the practice reports etc., the match-up isn’t as one-sided as I thought. One thing never changes: with football, the game is always won or lost in the trenches because that’s the foundation of every offensive play.

IF—huge if—Tennessee’s young offensive line can provide just 3 seconds of solid protection for Ainge, then we have enough offensive weapons with the running backs and receivers to put up some healthy numbers. The defense matches up moderately well with Cal’s offensive strengths. If Marshawn Lynch can be contained, and Tennessee can rattle Nate Longshore into making some bad throws, this may be one of the season’s early upsets. I’m going out on a shaky limb, and predicting a Tennessee win here:
Tennessee 21
California 18

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